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Prospects for sensors in thenew automotive economy6-7 February 2018 Frankfurt, GermanyRichard Dixon, Senior Principal Analyst, Sensors 49 89 89526 9132, [email protected] 2017 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.Confidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Agenda Market drivers Emissions aftertreatment and sensing Electrification and impact on powertrain Advanced safety and automated driving Sensor supply ecosystemConfidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.2
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Agenda Market drivers Emissions aftertreatment and sensing Electrification and impact on powertrain Advanced safety and automated driving Sensor supply ecosystemConfidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.3
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Four main drivers affect sensing going forwardADASL4/L5Advanced safety features, NCAP ratingsNew driving paradigmsHarmonization of emissions laws: EURO 6C, CN6, LEVIIIHarmonization of testing regimes: WLTP, RDE ElectrificationExhaust emission controlIHS Markit2017Confidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.202320304
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Agenda Market drivers Emissions aftertreatment and sensing Electrification and impact on powertrain Advanced safety and automated driving Sensor supply ecosystemConfidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.5
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Near term opportunity for sensors - exhausts Exhaust sensor modules market worth morethan 3.3 billion last year Air-fuel ratio, lambda, exhaust gas temperatureand pressure sensors are staple devices . Mature markets need new sensors such as NOx,PM, and devices for SCR Accelerate market past 500 M in 2022, up from 220million in 2015 Gasoline engines fitted with particle filters Emerging markets like China, India need basicexhaust monitors like pressure sensorGrowth rates for powertrain sensors (CAGR 2015–22)Exhaust gas pressureAir fuel ratioCamshaft positionKnock sensorManifold absolute pressureExhaust gas temperatureLamdba sensorOil pressure switchCrankshaft positionThrottle position sensorFuel level sensorEngine coolant temperatureAir intake temperatureEGR position sensorEGR temperature sensorCylinder pressureMass air flowFuel injection pressureNOx sensorSCR tank temperatureSCR tank levelTurbocharger speed sensorPM sensor (soot)Emerging marketscatching upMaturemarketsmeeting newtougherregulations0%Source: IHS Markit10%20%30%40% 2017 IHS MarkitSource: Powertrain Sensor ReportConfidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.6
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018What does a Euro 6c compliant diesel look like? Sensors are added for OBD of catalysts blocksDiesel aftertreatment Diesel oxygen catayst – oxygen sensor Particle filter – delta pressure temperature SCR filter - NOx sensor temperature,temperature level quality of AdBlue What’s new Particle mass sensors adopted in US market(LEVIII) since MY2014 to monitor DP filter More PM sensors in European market (althoughlegislation is focused on particle number)Source: IHS MarkitConfidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 2017 IHS Markit7
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Gasoline direct injection engine treated like diesel under Euro 6c Gasoline multi-port injection (MPI) enginesGasoline aftertreatment (direct injection)designed to combust with stoichiometric airfuel mixesO2 Temperature sensors not required for TWC, air-O2fuel ratio and OBD oxygen sensors suffice GDI use non-stoichiometric air-fuel mixesTemperature(optional) TWC gasoline particle filter starting in 2017Delta P GPF is (mostly) passively regenerating, but Pand temperature deployed for OBD monitoringand characterization May also impact MPI enginesFuel Huge new market for pressure ( temperature)Source: IHS MarkitConfidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. 2017 IHS Markit8
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Regional variations in powertrain sensor adoption Harmonization of emission standardsAverage number of sensors/car by regionworldwide16 Drives increasing sensor penetration in different15regions15 sensors By comparison Chinese C-class gasoline powered carwith China 4 standard has 10 powertrain sensors, andIndian cars have fewer than 10 China and India adopt tighter standards, andsensor adoption also accelerates India jumps Bharat 4 to Bharat 6, acceleratingAverage sensors/car European GDI C-class car with Euro Standard 6 has1413121110982011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022exhaust catalyst sensorsEuropeMiddle East/AfricaSouth AsiaSource: IHS MarkitConfidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.Greater ChinaNorth AmericaJapan/KoreaSouth America 2017 IHS Markit9
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Aftertreatment sensors: who makes these devices?Oxygen sensors:Bosch, Denso,NTK ContinentalNOx:Continental –NTK, Bosch,Denso(prototype)IHS MarkitBoschBoschBoschPM: Bosch,Stoneridge,Continental(2017)Exhaust temperature:Sensata, NTK, DensoContinentalSCR urea quality: SSITechnologies, AB Elektronik,Continental Confidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.SCR temperature, level: SSITechnologies, Eltek, Elobau,Meder-Standex10
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Agenda Market drivers Emissions aftertreatment and sensing Electrification and impact on powertrain Advanced safety and automated driving Sensor supply ecosystemConfidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.11
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018From Internal Combustion Engine to Electric Car – threat to sensors?All values first level package sensor ASIC 1LPInternalcombustionengine: around 50 for sensorsElectricmotor:around 8 to 12 forsensorsBMW i3MEMS: 9 value / engine on average 4 pressure sensors 1 flow sensorSilicon magnetic: 1 - 2 per traction motor 3 – 6 position and current sensors formotor position controlSilicon magnetic: 5 / engine 6 position, speed devicesOther sensor for battery: 5-10(temperature, voltage, current humidity)Non silicon sensors: 35 / engine Up to 7 gas sensors, temperatureConfidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.12
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Agenda Market drivers Emissions aftertreatment and sensing Electrification and impact on powertrain Advanced safety and automated driving Sensor supply ecosystemConfidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.13
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Safety sensors today and tomorrowtimeAnti-blocking systemElectronic stability controlTire pressure monitorRoll over detectionFront airbagSide airbagsPedestrian occupation detectionPassenger occupation detectionAutomatic Emergency BrakingAdvanced Cruise ControlAccident sensor (Telematics)Black box sensor (insurance)Utrasonic distanceCameraRadarConfidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.IHS MarkitLIDARNavigation (dead reckon)Sensor fusion ECUIntelligent tires (in tire sensor)Advanced seat (heart rate)Occupant drowsinessCO2 cabin monitorCabin particulate sensorActive supsensionAdaptive lightingLaser lighting 14
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018MEMS & Sensor technologies for autonomous drivingFail-operationalFail-safeAutomation levelOnly tionHighAutomationFullAutomationSystem capabilitySome drivingmodesSome drivingmodesSome drivingmodesSome drivingmodesAll drivingmodesDriving environmentmonitoringHuman DriverHuman DriverSystemSystemSystemFallback responsibility of driving taskHuman DriverHuman DriverHuman DriverSystemSystemL1L2L3L4L5Radar: from 1D to 2D detectionEvolution ologiesCamera: towards higher resolution (Up to 7MP); increasing frame rate (30 to 60 frames/sec)Infrared Camera: essential for driver monitoring in L3Ultrasonic: No big changeLidar: from macro-mechanical to solid-stateHigh-performance IMU: Dead reckoning sensors for L4 and L5Adaptive Lighting: based on MEMS scanners and/or DLPIHS MarkitConfidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.15
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Lidar: the technology fightBased on solid-state technologyMechanicalScanning LIDAR Valeo/IbeoIbeoVelodyneQuanergyNon scanningFlash LIDARSystem Suppliers: Continental Continental(ASC) Valeo InvisageTechnologies Strobe*Phase arrayLIDAR Quanergy MIT DarpaMEMS basedscanning LIDAR Microvision Innoluce(Infineon) InnovizTechnologies Lemoptix (Intel) Bosch STMicro Solution suppliers: LeddarCore PhantomIntelligenceSource: Valeo/IbeoSource: ContinentalConfidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.OtherVCSEL based: Trilumina XenomatixElectro-opticscanner: PrincetonLightwaveOptical Antenna: OryxVisionSource: QuanergySource: InnoluceIHS Markit16
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Inertial navigation assumes 100x better performance than today Autonomous driving requires high performance dead reckoningGlobal positioning of point cloud imagesfor high resolution maps with LIDARPositioning for yaw rate sensor autonomous drivingSource: QuanergyHigh-performance IMU can be insideLIDAR, e.g. Quanergy using ADIConfidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.IHS Markit17
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Adaptive lighting: full beam all the time Replaces night vision systems Competes with microbolometer (expensive) and sensitive CMOS sensorsSource: HellaSource: BoschConfidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.Adaptive laser light based on MEMS18
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Dixon / February 2018Agenda Market drivers Emissions aftertreatment and sensing Electrification and impact on powertrain Advanced safety and automated driving Sensor supply ecosystemConfidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.19
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Automotive supports many suppliers .Safety modules-AutolivBoschContinentalCTS AutomotiveDelphiDensoEFI AutomotiveHellaHitachi AutomotiveKeficoMandoSensata (Schrader)TE ConnectivityValeo .IHS MarkitSensors suppliers (die and 1LP):Consumersuppliers makinginroads STMicroelectronics,Bosch Sensortec Confidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.- ADI, Allegro, AKM, ALPS, Amphenol, ams, Bosch,Delphi, Denso, ELMOS, Epson, FLIR, Freescale,Fuji Elec., Infineon, Kavlico, Kionix, Melexis,Micronas, MEMSIC, Microstaq, Murata, NXP,Osram, Panasonic, Samyoung, Sensata,Sensirion, SGX, SMI, STMicroelectonics, TI,ULIS Powertrainmodules-AisinBorg WarnerBoschBournsContinentalCTS AutomotiveDelphiDensoEFI AutomotiveHellaHirschmannHitachi AutomotiveHoneywellKeficoKSPGLEMMagneti MarelliMandoMelcoNGKSensata (Wabash)StoneridgeTE ConnectivityTT-ElectronicsValeoVisteon 20
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Automotive MEMS & Sensors Ecosystem (simplified)Tier 3MEMS & sensorsfoundries: Xfab,Teledyne, APM,SMI,TSMC Confidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.Tier 2Tier 1OEMsVertically integrated Tier 1 (with own MEMS design andfabs)Bosch, Denso, Sensata, (Delphi, Conti)Merchant MEMS & Sensorchip suppliers:NXP/Freescale, ADI, OnSemi, Infineon, Allegro,Melexis, ST Tier 1Conti, Bosch, Delphi,Denso, ZF TRW, Autoliv, Traditional OEMs:Toyota, VW, GM,Ford 22
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Automotive MEMS & Sensors Ecosystem (simplified)Historical suppliers of consumer MEMS devices make inroads into automotive applications like ESC, airbags Tier 3MEMS & sensorsfoundries: Xfab,Teledyne, APM,SMI,TSMC Tier 2Tier 1OEMsVertically integrated Tier 1 (own MEMS design and fabs)Bosch, Denso, Sensata, (Delphi, Conti)Merchant MEMS & sensorchip suppliers:NXP/Freescale, ADI, OnSemi, Infineon, Allegro,Melexis, ST Tier 1Conti, Bosch, Delphi,Denso, ZF TRW, Autoliv, Traditional OEMs:Toyota, VW, GM,Ford CE MEMS suppliers:ST, InvenSense.Rohm/Kionix?Confidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.23
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Autonomous driving impacts the ecosystemTier 3MEMS & sensorsfoundries: Xfab,Teledyne, APM,SMI,TSMC Tier 2Tier 1OEMsVertically integrated Tier 1 (with own MEMS design andfabs)Bosch, Denso, Sensata, (Delphi, Conti)Merchant MEMS & Sensorchip suppliers:NXP/Freescale, ADI, OnSemi, Infineon, Allegro,Melexis, ST CE MEMS suppliers:ST, InvenSense.Rohm/Kionix?Tier 1Conti, Bosch, Delphi,Denso, ZF TRW, Autoliv, Traditional OEMs:Toyota, VW, GM,Ford New mobilityplayers: Google,Uber, Apple Start-ups : Quanergy, Microvision, Innoviz, InnoLuce,Lemoptix, Lumedyne SoC for sensor fusion:Mobileye, nVidia, NXP, ST,Intel Confidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.24
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Autonomous driving impacts the ecosystemStart-ups develop critical sensor technologies for autonomous drivingTier 3MEMS & sensorsfoundries: Xfab,Teledyne, APM,SMI,TSMC Tier 2Tier 1OEMsVertically integrated Tier 1 (with own MEMS design andfabs)Bosch, Denso, Sensata, (Delphi, Conti)Merchant MEMS & Sensorchip suppliers:NXP/Freescale, ADI, OnSemi, Infineon, Allegro,Melexis, ST CE MEMS suppliers:ST, InvenSense.Rohm/Kionix?Tier 1Conti, Bosch, Delphi,Denso, ZF TRW, Autoliv, Traditional OEMs:Toyota, VW, GM,Ford New mobilityplayers: Google,Uber, Apple Start-ups : Quanergy, Microvision, Innoviz, InnoLuce,Lemoptix, Lumedyne M&AsSoC for sensor fusion:Mobileye, nVidia, NXP, ST,Intel Confidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.Investment25
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Autonomous driving impacts the ecosystemTier 3MEMS & sensorsfoundries: Xfab,Teledyne, APM,SMI,TSMC Tier 2Tier 1OEMsVertically integrated Tier 1 (with own MEMS design andfabs)Bosch, Denso, Sensata, (Delphi, Conti)?Merchant MEMS & Sensorchip suppliers:NXP/Freescale, ADI, OnSemi, Infineon, Allegro,Melexis, ST CE MEMS suppliers:ST, InvenSense.Rohm/Kionix?Tier 1Conti, Bosch, Delphi,Denso, ZF TRW, Autoliv, Traditional OEMs:Toyota, VW, GM,Ford New mobilityplayers: Google,Uber, Apple Start-ups : Quanergy, Microvision, Innoviz, InnoLuce,Lemoptix, Lumedyne SoC for sensor fusion:Mobileye, nVidia, NXP, ST,Intel Confidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.26
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Autonomous driving impacts the ecosystemShift of weight towards SoC to power Sensor Fusion ECU at expense of tier 1Tier 1Tier 3MEMS & sensorsfoundries: Xfab,Teledyne, APM,SMI,TSMC Tier 2Tier 1OEMsVertically integrated Tier 1 (with own MEMS design andfabs)Bosch, Denso, Sensata, (Delphi, Conti)Merchant MEMS & Sensorchip suppliers:NXP/Freescale, ADI, OnSemi, Infineon, Allegro,Melexis, ST CE MEMS suppliers:ST, InvenSense.Rohm/Kionix?Tier 1Conti, Bosch, Delphi,Denso, ZF TRW, Autoliv, Traditional OEMs:Toyota, VW, GM,Ford New mobilityplayers: Google,Uber, Apple Start-ups : Quanergy, Microvision, Innoviz, InnoLuce,Lemoptix, Lumedyne SoC for sensor fusion:Mobileye, nVidia, NXP, ST,Intel Confidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.27
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Conclusions 2017 – 2022 dominated by need to make exhaust even cleaner Aftertreatment no longer just an issue for diesels, also gasoline engines General harmonization of emissions standards and testing regimes worldwide stimulates sensor backfillingin China, India . New European legislation targeting lower CO2 levels force electrification strategies, i.e. hybrids Aftertreatment depends on duty cycle of ICE, sensors needed for e-motor, sub-systems and batteries Autonmous driving will drive new sensing applications Sensors enabling for new systems, e.g. LIDAR, adaptive lighting, performance navigation Startups invigorate supply chain, e.g. for sensor fusion chips, working directly with OEMs Future looks great for sensorsConfidential. 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.28
Prospects for sensors in the new automotive economyDixon / February 2018Thank you for your attention!Dr. Richard Dixon, Tel. 49 89 89 526 9132, [email protected] 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.29
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and temperature deployed for OBD monitoring and characterization . - Delphi - Denso - EFI Automotive - Hella - Hitachi Automotive - Kefico - Mando - Sensata (Schrader) - TE Connectivity Valeo Sensors suppliers (die a
