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State of KansasK-12 Enrollment Projection ReportTed CarterResearch SpecialistJanuary 2015

ContentsIntroduction . 4Enrollment Headcounts . 4Chart 1: Actual and Projected Enrollments by Grade . 4Table 1: Actual and Projected Enrollments by Grade . 5Table 2: Actual and Projected Enrollments by Other Student Groups . 5Chart 2: Actual and Projected Enrollments by Race/Ethnicity. 6Table 3: Actual and Projected Enrollments Race/Ethnicity . 6Chart 3: Actual and Projected Enrollments by National School Lunch Program Eligibility . 7Chart 4: Actual and Projected Enrollments by Special Education Status. 8Table 4: Actual and Projected Enrollments by Program . 8Conclusion . 9Appendix A: Methodology . 10Initial Data . 10Ratio of Birth to First Grade Enrollment . 10Cohort Survival Ratios . 10Other Student Groups . 11Demographics . 11Accuracy of Projections. 11Chart A1: Projection Accuracy. 12Table A1: Projection Accuracy. 12Appendix B: Additional Charts and Tables . 13Table B1: Actual and Projected Birth to 1st Grade Ratios and Enrollments . 13Chart B1: Actual and Projected 1st Grade Enrollments . 13Table B2: Actual and Projected Cohort Survival Ratios . 14Appendix C: Census Data . 15QuickFacts . 15Table C1: Actual and Projected Population . 16Chart C1: Actual and Projected Population . 17

IntroductionThis document contains headcount enrollment projections for the State of Kansas for the 2015-16school year through the 2019-20 school year. These projections are based on resident live births inKansas and the headcount enrollment data for previous school years. For more information on themethods used, refer to Appendix A.Enrollment HeadcountsAs Chart 1 and Table 1 show, student enrollment in Kansas is expected to continue the trend of gradualincrease from approximately 526,000 students in 2014-15 to approximately 562,000 students in 201920. Changes across grades are expected to be fairly consistent, with no grades showing patternssignificantly different than the rest.Chart 1: Actual and Projected Enrollments by Grade600,000500,000Students h200,0005th4th3rd100,0002nd1st-KGSchool YearNote: Other represents non-graded students and students in grade categories other than K-12.Page 4 of 18

Table 1: Actual and Projected Enrollments by 6,68938,20638,58340,27012th 561,906As Table 2 shows, headcount enrollment for students in grades other than K-12 is expected to increasethrough the 2019-20 school year from approximately 25,000 students to approximately 30,000 students.Table 2: Actual and Projected Enrollments by Other Student GroupsYear Daycare SpEd 3-4 yr 4 yr At 8-198,1378,8062019-208,2578,839Pre-K NonGraded Total ,906As Charts 2 through 4 and Tables 3 and 4 show, there are no major changes in the trends for students ineach race/ethnicity category, students eligible for free lunch (FL), students eligible for reduced-pricelunch (RPL), students not eligible for services under the National School Lunch Program (FPL), specialeducation students (Sped), non-special education students (Non-Sped), and students receiving servicesfor English Language Services (ELL) from the 2014-15 school year through the 2019-20 school year.Page 5 of 18

Chart 2: Actual and Projected Enrollments byRace/Ethnicity600,000500,000OtherAsianAm IndianHispanicStudents ool YearTable 3: Actual and Projected Enrollments 60729,35422,02124,29424,03325,73325,212The projection report produced by KASB in July suggested the percent of students in the state who areof Hispanic ethnicity could increase to 22 percent by the 2018-19 school year. The current reportestimates the percent will remain fairly constant from the current year through the 2019-20 school yearPage 6 of 18

at approximately 18 percent. The reasons for this apparent discrepancy are a) the previous report wasbased on data through the 2013-14 school year whereas the current report is based on data through the2014-15 school year, and b) the current report utilizes different calculations. For more information onthis, as well as details regarding the accuracy of the projections, refer to Appendix A.Chart 3: Actual and Projected Enrollments byNational School Lunch Program Eligibility600,000500,000Students l YearPage 7 of 18

Chart 4: Actual and Projected Enrollments bySpecial Education Status600,000500,000SpedStudents l YearTable 4: Actual and Projected Enrollments by 09283,137287,282Page 8 of 18Sped Non-Sped60,844 412,39262,555 412,44663,353 417,24063,889 421,19364,342 422,61465,008 424,57465,986 430,91767,934 457,93471,234 462,80771,921 468,87372,783 473,97273,606 481,63674,433 487,473

ConclusionBased on the available data related to resident live births by county and previous school yearenrollments, student enrollment in Kansas is expected to increase from approximately 526,000 studentsin 2014-15 to approximately 562,000 students in 2019-20. Trends by grade level and programparticipation are expected to be consistent with previous years.Page 9 of 18

Appendix A: MethodologyThe following describes the methods used for developing the Enrollment Projections contained in thisreport. This method is based on the one used by KASB for many years, but has been enhanced andexpanded as of the 2014-15 school year.Initial DataKASB acquires enrollment counts from the Kansas State Department of Education (KSDE) via their K-12School Reports page (http://svapp15586.ksde.org/k12/k12.aspx).KASB acquires county-level birth data by month from the Kansas Department of Health and Environmentvia their Annual Summary of Vital Statistics (www.kdheks.gov/hci/annsumm.html).Ratio of Birth to First Grade EnrollmentTotal resident live births by state and school year are calculated using monthly births from September ofone year through August of the following year; consistent with the birth dates used to determine age ofeligibility for attending first grade. The birth data by county is then tied to the state-level enrollmentdata.Because of some of the challenges with kindergarten data, KASB utilizes a ratio of births by school yearto first grade enrollments seven years later; when the children would be turning seven years old andtherefore be eligible for first grade enrollment.This ratio, which serves as a comparison between children born in the state to the number of studentsenrolling in first grade within the state seven years later, serves as the basis for the enrollmentestimates for the state. Limitations of this ratio include the fact that it does not take into accountchildren moving into or out of the state’s boundaries.In order to estimate the first grade enrollment numbers for future years, a five-year rolling average isutilized. Such an average is calculated by determining the average ratio for the past five years in order tocreate the ratio for the first year of the projection, then taking the ratio for the past four years plus theratio calculated for the first year of the projection and averaging them in order to create the ratio forthe second year of the projection, and so forth. Rolling averages are commonly utilized in order tominimize the impact of short-term fluctuations or deviations on the overall projections.The calculated ratios for five years’ worth of school years are then applied to the actual resident livebirths in order to determine estimated first grade enrollment numbers at the state level.Table B1 shows the actual and projected birth to first grade ratios and numbers at the district level.Chart B1 shows, at the district level, the actual and projected first grade enrollment numbers.Cohort Survival RatiosFor all other grade levels 2 through 12 at the state and district level, a cohort survival ratio is calculatedand utilized. The cohort survival ratio determines the relationship between the number of students at aparticular grade level one year and the number of students at the next grade level the following year.Page 10 of 18

For kindergarten, the ratio is calculated backwards; determining the ratio of the number of students infirst grade one year and the number of students in kindergarten the year prior. Again for thesecalculations a five-year rolling average is utilized.Table B2 shows the actual and projected cohort survival ratios at the district level. Table 1 shows theactual and projected enrollment numbers by grade at the state level, as well as the total K-12 numbers.Other Student GroupsBeyond the traditional grades K through 12, KSDE also reports on students in the following groups: DaycareSpecial Education Three- and Four-Year OldsFour-Year Olds At RiskPre-KindergartenNon-gradedIn order to estimate the enrollment numbers for these students at the state and district level, a ratio ofeach group to the total number of students in K-12 for the same year is calculated, and again a five-yearrolling average is utilized to project numbers for the next five years.Table 2 shows the actual and projected numbers for these groups at the district level, as well as theoverall total numbers. Chart 1 shows the actual and projected enrollment numbers for the K-12 and allstudents groups at the district level.DemographicsKSDE also provides student counts by students eligible for free lunch, students eligible for reduced-pricelunch, and students receiving special education services.Like the other student groups described above, in order to estimate the enrollment numbers for thesestudents at the state level, a ratio of each group to the total number of students in K-12 for the sameyear is calculated, and again a five-year rolling average is utilized to project numbers for the next fiveyears.Tables 3 and 4 show the actual and projected numbers for these groups at the state level. Charts 2through 4 show district-level data. Chart 2 shows the actual and projected numbers by race/ethnicity,Chart 3 shows numbers for free and reduced-price lunch eligibility and Chart 4 shows the actual andprojected numbers by special education status.Accuracy of ProjectionsIt is important to note that the projections in this report are “best guesses” for what future enrollmentsin Kansas at the state, district, and/or school level may look like based on the existing data. Changes inpolicies, large employers entering or exiting the state, and other factors can have a significant impact onthe actual enrollment figures that would not be reflected in these projections.Page 11 of 18

Chart A1 shows the actual headcount enrollment for the State of Kansas along with the projectedheadcount enrollments calculated each year from 2003-04 through 2014-15Chart A1: Projection 996-971995-961994-951993-941992-93460,000As Chart A1 above and Table A1 below show, the projections are more accurate the first year out thanthe fifth year because as the time between the calculation of the projection and the year projectedincreases, the likelihood of other factors influencing the overall total increases. On average the firstyear calculations using this calculation were approximately 1 percent below the actual enrollmentnumbers, whereas on average the fifth year projections were 2.3 percent under the actual enrollmentnumbers. It is also important to note that this calculation methodology consistently under-estimatesthe actual headcount enrollments for the state.Table A1: Projection ion-0.96%-1.29%-1.50%-1.79%-2.31%Page 12 of 18

Appendix B: Additional Charts and TablesTable B1: Actual and Projected Birth to1st Grade Ratios and EnrollmentsBirth Year School 12017-182011-122018-192012-132019-20Births 1st 930.940.940.940.94Chart B1: Actual and Projected 1st Grade Enrollments42,00041,0001st Grade 0033,000School YearPage 13 of 18

Table B2: Actual and Projected Cohort Survival RatiosSchool 80.930.941.031.031.151.021.031.051.061.06Page 14 of 0.980.981.01

Appendix C: Census DataQuickFactsPeople QuickFactsPopulation, 2013 estimatePopulation, 2010 (April 1) estimates basePopulation, percent change, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013Population, 2010Persons under 5 years, percent, 2013Persons under 18 years, percent, 2013Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2013Female persons, percent, 2013White alone, percent, 2013 (a)Black or African American alone, percent, 2013 (a)American Indian and Alaska Native alone, percent, 2013 (a)Asian alone, percent, 2013 (a)Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone, percent, 2013 (a)Two or More Races, percent, 2013Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2013 (b)White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2013Living in same house 1 year & over, percent, 2008-2012Foreign born persons, percent, 2008-2012Language other than English spoken at home, pct age 5 , 2008-2012High school graduate or higher, percent of persons age 25 , 2008-2012Bachelor's degree or higher, percent of persons age 25 , 2008-2012Veterans, 2008-2012Mean travel time to work (minutes), workers age 16 , 2008-2012Housing units, 2013Homeownership rate, 2008-2012Housing units in multi-unit structures, percent, 2008-2012Median value of owner-occupied housing units, 2008-2012Households, 2008-2012Persons per household, 2008-2012Per capita money income in past 12 months (2012 dollars), 2008-2012Median household income, 2008-2012Persons below poverty level, percent, 2008-2012Business QuickFactsPrivate nonfarm establishments, 2012Private nonfarm employment, 2012Private nonfarm employment, percent change, 2011-2012Nonemployer establishments, 2012Total number of firms, 2007Black-owned firms, percent, 2007American Indian- and Alaska Native-owned firms, percent, 2007Asian-owned firms, percent, 2007Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander-owned firms, percent, 2007Hispanic-owned firms, percent, 2007Women-owned firms, percent, 2007Manufacturers shipments, 2007 ( 1000)Merchant wholesaler sales, 2007 ( 1000)Retail sales, 2007 ( 1000)Retail sales per capita, 2007Accommodation and food services sales, 2007 ( 1000)Building permits, 2012Page 15 of 9,70668.20%17.60% 127,4001,109,3912.5 26,845 4,538,332 12,4444,192,3476,252

Geography QuickFactsLand area in square miles, 2010Persons per square mile, 2010FIPS CodeMetropolitan or Micropolitan Statistical AreaKansas81,758.7234.920Includes persons reporting only one race.Hispanics may be of any race, so also are included in applicable race categories.FN: Footnote on this item for this area in place of dataNA: Not availableD: Suppressed to avoid disclosure of confidential informationX: Not applicableS: Suppressed; does not meet publication standardsZ: Value greater than zero but less than half unit of measure shownF: Fewer than 100 firmsSource: US Census Bureau State & County QuickFactsTable C1: Actual and Projected Page 16 of 18

Chart C1: Actual and Projected Population3,500,0003,000,000State 00500,0000YearPage 17 of 18

Copyright 2015All rights reserved.Kansas Association of School Boards1420 SW Arrowhead Rd.Topeka, Kansas 66604Phone: 785.273.3600 Fax: 785.273.7580 Toll Free: 800.432.2471www.kasb.org [email protected]

This document contains headcount enrollment projections for the State of Kansas for the 2015-16 school year through the 2019-20 school year. These projections are based on resident live births in Kansas and the headcount enrollment data for previous school years. For more information on the methods used, refer to Appendix A.