Transcription

MARCH 20212 02 1 -2 024Florida & MetroFORECAST

About University of Central Florida (UCF)The University of Central Florida is a public, multi-campus, metropolitan research university,dedicated to serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations,technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer highquality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education;to conduct research and creative activities; to provide services that enhance the intellectual,cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region; to address nationaland international issues in key areas; to establish UCF as a major presence; and to contribute to theglobal community.About the College of BusinessThe College of Business advances the university’s mission and goal in providing intellectualleadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduateprograms, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research andquality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levelsto citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele nationally and internationally.We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institutefor Economic Forecasting:

FLO R I DA & M E TRO FO R EC A S T2021 - 2024Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Forecasting,College of Business, University of Central FloridaCopyright 2021 Institute for Economic Forecasting. All rights reserved.Publications of the Institute for Economic Forecasting are made possible by thefollowing staff:Dr. Sean Snaith, DirectorSummer McCowen, ResearcherJames Bailey, ResearcherDana Rosewall, ResearcherNefertari Elshiekh, ResearcherLeonardo Rossi, ResearcherJustin Mahoney, ResearcherBrandon Truong, ResearcherThis forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for EconomicForecasting judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materiallyfrom the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Forecasting nor the University ofCentral Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unlessapproved by the Institute for Economic Forecasting, the publication or distribution ofthis forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from thisforecast are prohibited.

TA B LE O F CO NTENTSFlorida Highlights and Summary.5 – 13Florida Forecast Tables . 14 – 19Florida Forecast Charts .20 – 23Florida News Summaries. 23 – 24Cape Coral–Fort Myers . 25 – 29Crestview–Ft. Walton Beach–Destin . 30 – 34Deltona–Daytona Beach–Ormond Beach . 35 – 39Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Sunrise .40 – 44Gainesville .45 – 49Homosassa Springs. 50 – 54Jacksonville . 55 – 59Lakeland–Winter Haven . 60 – 64Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach .65 – 69Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall. 70 – 74Naples–Immokalee–Marco Island . 75 – 79North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton . 80 – 84Ocala .85 – 89Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford . 90 – 94Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville .95 – 99Panama City .100 – 104Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent . 105 – 109Port St. Lucie .110 – 114Punta Gorda. 115 – 119Sebastian–Vero Beach .120 – 124Sebring . 125 – 129Tallahassee.130 – 134Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater . 135 – 139The Villages . 140 – 144West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach .145 – 149Industry Location Quotient . 1504Florida & Metro Forecast / March 2021

H IG HLI GHTS OF T H E MA R C H 2 02 1FLORI DA FOR E C AST Florida, we’ve got you covered. The Institute for Economic Forecasting has expanded theFlorida & Metro Forecast to cover all Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the State. Housing is the post-pandemic version of toilet paper in Florida’s economy. From 2021-2024, Florida’s economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, will expandat an average annual rate of 3.9%. After contracting by 2.9% in 2020, Real Gross StateProduct will rise by 5.4% in 2021. Payroll job growth in Florida will continue to outpace national job growth as the labormarket climbs out of a deep hole. After year-over-year growth of -4.3% in 2020, the labormarket will continue its rebound to 4.1% in 2021, 3.0% in 2022, 1.2% in 2023, and 1.1% in2024. Average job growth over the 2021-2024 period will be 0.3 percentage points fasterthan the national economy. Labor force growth in Florida will average 2.4% from 2021-2024. After a sharp contractionof 4.3% in 2020, strong payroll job creation will boost Florida’s labor market recovery.The improved prospect of finding a job will bring more Floridians back to the hunt foremployment, particularly those who dropped out as a result of the lockdowns and recession. The efforts to lower the state’s unemployment rate will continue and Florida’s acceleratingjob creation will help. The unemployment rate that jumped from 3.1% in 2019, to 7.7% in2020, will fall to 4.6% in 2021, and then to 3.6% in 2022, where it will remain through2024. The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during 2021-2024 are Leisure& Hospitality (4.8%), Professional & Business Services (4.2%), Education & HealthServices (3.5%), Trade, Transportation & Utilities (1.2%), and Financial Activities (1.1%). Housing starts will pick up going forward, but not fast enough to ease the large shortageof single-family housing in the short run. Total starts of 157,659 in 2020 will jump to179,361 in 2021, 159,494 in 2022, easing to 146,775 in 2023 and 142,748 in 2024. Houseprice appreciation will slowly decelerate over this period as supply catches up with strongdemand. Real personal income growth will average 2.1% during 2021-2024, starting with a modest0.9% growth rate in 2021, accelerating through the end of 2024 hitting 3.2% in that year.Florida’s average growth will be 0.7 percentage points higher than the national rate overthat four-year span. Retail sales will grow at an average pace of over 4.4% during 2021-2024. After a sharpbounce back in the first half of 2021, growth will moderate in 2022, and then retail saleswill grow at an average rate of 4.0% during 2023-2024.Institute for Economic Forecasting 5

FLORIDA SUMMARYM E T R O P O L I TA NS TAT I S T I C A L A R E AMiami-Fort Lauderdale-PompanoBeach, FL MSA*Port St. Lucie, FL MSAA NOTE FROMTHE DIRECTORIt has been many years in the making,fifteen years since the first issue, butthe Institute for Economic Forecastingis releasing our new Florida & MetroForecast that includes forecasts for all theMetropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) inthe state of Florida.Historically, we have produced forecastsfor twelve of the twenty-two metropolitanareas, but beginning with this issue, wewill include forecasts for all twenty-two ofthe state’s MSAs. Additionally, while wehave produced forecasts for the MiamiFort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach MSAand will continue to do so, we are addingforecasts for each of the three MetropolitanDivisions that comprise the larger MiamiMSA.The complete list of metropolitan areasfor which we will provide economicforecasts as well as the counties thatcomprise each MSA are listed in the table.Areas marked with an asterisk indicatethat these are new forecasts appearing forthe first time in this issue of the Florida &Metro Forecast.From the inception of the Florida &Metro Forecast, we have included forecasts6Florida & Metro Forecast / March 2021*Sebastian-Vero Beach MSACOUNTYMiami-Dade County, FloridaBroward County, FloridaPalm Beach County, FloridaSt. Lucie County, FloridaMartin County, FloridaIndian River County, FloridaOrange County, FloridaOrlando-Kissimmee, FL MSASeminole County, FloridaOsceola County, FloridaLake County, FloridaLakeland-Winter Haven, FL MSAPolk County, Florida PolkCounty, FloridaDeltona-Daytona Beach-OrmondBeach, FL MSAVolusia County, Florida*The Villages, FL MSASumter County, FloridaFlagler County, FloridaHillsborough County, FloridaTampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater,FL MSAPinellas County, FloridaPasco County, FloridaHernando County, FloridaDuval County, FloridaSt. Johns County, FloridaJacksonville, FL MSAClay County, FloridaNassau County, FloridaBaker County, Florida*Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL MSALee County, FloridaNaples-Marco Island, FL MSACollier County, Florida*North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton,FL MSASarasota County, Florida*Punta Gorda, FL MSACharlotte County, FloridaPalm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FLMSABrevard County, FloridaPensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FLMSAEscambia County, FloridaManatee County, FloridaSanta Rosa County, FloridaAlachua County, FloridaGainesville, FL MSALevy County, FloridaGilchrist County, FloridaOcala, FL MSAMarion County, FloridaLeon County, FloridaTallahassee, FL MSAGadsden County, FloridaWakulla County, FloridaJefferson County, Florida*Crestview-Fort Walton BeachDestin, FL MSAOkaloosa County, FloridaWalton County, Florida*Panama City, FL MSABay County, Florida*Homosassa Springs, FL MSACitrus County, Florida*Sebring-Avon Park, FL MSAHighlands County, Florida

FLORIDA SUMMARYM E T R O P O L I TA N D I V I S I O NCOUNTY*Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL MDMiami-Dade County, Florida*Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Sunrise, FL MDBroward County, Florida*West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL MDPalm Beach County, Floridafor the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-PompanoBeach MSA. We will continue to produceforecasts for this MSA but are adding threenew forecasts that cover each of the threemetropolitan divisions that comprise thelargest MSA in the state of Florida. Eachdivision corresponds to one of the threecounties that make up the MSA. Takenindividually, each of these divisions wouldrank in the top six of Florida’s metropolitanareas, with Miami-Miami Beach-Kendallat the top of the list. Though the threeeconomies are interconnected, they aresufficiently large and different from oneanother to each warrant an individual forecast.Going forward this publication will includethe Institute for Economic Forecasting’seconomic forecasts for the Florida economy aswell as forecasts for these twenty-five regionaleconomies across the state. The online versionof this forecast publication will retain largelythe same format and as it has had historically,though we will continue to look for new waysto present and share the expanded data wewill generate each quarter. However, due toprinting and mailing costs, the hard copy thatis mailed out will not include everything thatis available in the digital version.It has been fifteen years coming, but,Florida, we now have you covered.SeanFLORIDA’S HOUSING MARKETHousing is Taking the Place of Toilet Paperin FloridaOne of the many puzzling aspects of theCOVID-19 pandemic was the panic buying oftoilet paper. Suppliers couldn’t keep up withconsumer demand, and shelves usually fully stockedwith toilet paper, sat empty for several months.Any inventory that was restocked was quicklydepleted. Given that COVID-19 is a respiratoryvirus, this was a very curious aspectof 2020.Toilet paper is once again well stocked in retailoutlets, but the same cannot be said of the housingmarket. Inventories remain at historically lowlevels, and COVID supply chain disruptionscontinue to roil the housing materials market.The February 2021 single-family home reportreleased by Florida Realtors shows a market forexisting housing that remains historically tight,fueling rapid price appreciation that has pushedmedian prices 54,100 above the peak price of thehousing bubble in June 2006. The median salesprice for single-family homes increased by 44,900in February 2021, year-over-year, and now standsat 314,900—a year-over-year price appreciationof 16.6%. Price appreciation in the townhome/condominium market continues as well, with anincrease in the median sales price by 33,240,year-over-year, registering at 233,240 in Februaryof this year. This price increase represents a 16.6%increase in median prices year-over-year.Institute for Economic Forecasting7

FLORIDA SUMMARYInventories of single-familyhomes in February are downfrom a year ago, and are just 1.3months of supply, indicating aninventory balance that continuesto favor sellers in the single-familymarket, according to the FloridaRealtors report.1 Inventories ofcondominiums fell to 3.4 monthsfrom 5.4 months back in February2020 to this February. Thisindicates that the condo market isfurther tilted in the seller’s favor.Figure 1. Single-Family Existing-Home SalesFloridaSingle-Family, Existing Homes35,00030,000Realtor SalesMoving Average25,00020,00015,00010,0005,0000Distressed sales of single-familySource: Florida Realtorshomes in the form of short salescontinue to plummet year-overavailability year-over-year.2year (-44.1%), as have foreclosure/REO salesFigure 1 depicts the monthly realtor salesversus February 2020, which declined (-69.3%).of existing single-family homes as well as theTraditional sales are up 18.7% year-over-year versus12-month moving average of these sales. ThisFebruary 2020. Distressed sales of condos in thesmoother moving average line levels out theform of short sales are still rapidly contractingseasonality and other statistical noise in monthlyyear-over-year as well (-26.1%), and foreclosure/housing market data. Sales have been on a strongREO sales are down sharply from February 2020upward path, and the 12-month moving average(-55.1%). Traditional sales of condos were up 30.6%and monthly sales have greatly exceeded their peakin February 2021 when compared to Februaryvalue during the housing bubble. Sales growth2020.coming out of the bottom has been on a strongerIn February 2021, the percentage of closedtrend than the pre-bubble housing market, but oversales of single-family homes that were cashthe past couple of years, the 12-month movingtransactions stood at 29.0%. For condos, thataverage flattened out before resuming its climb.figure is much higher, as 51.2% of all closings wereThis is a reflection of decreasing affordability incash transactions. Both markets’ shares of cashthe face of the rapid price appreciation over thetransactions have declined year-over-year, whichpast several years and the depleted inventory ofpoints to a diminishing role of cash investors inhouses for sale. The COVID-19 plunge in salesFlorida’s housing market. This is occurring despitea sharp COVID-19-related decline in mortgage2 The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), put out by the1According to the Florida Realtors, the benchmark for a balancedmarket (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 months of inventory.Numbers above that indicate a buyers’ market, numbers below asellers’ market. Other real estate economists suggest a 6 to 9-monthinventory as being a balanced market.8Florida & Metro Forecast / March 2021Mortgage Bankers Association, was unchanged from January at 124.6in February 2021. The increase in the index from the end of 2020 indicates that lending standards have eased. The index is benchmarkedto 100 in March 2012. Relative to that month, mortgages in February 2021 were 24.6% more available. In 2006, the value of this sameindex approached 900 and at the start of 2020, the index was near185.

FLORIDA SUMMARYFigure 2. Median Sales Price, Single-Family Existing HomesFloridaSingle-Family, Existing Homes 350,000 300,000Median Sales PriceMoving Average 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0Source: Florida Realtorsduring April and May has pulled down the movingaverage in 2020, but the post-shutdown reboundhas been strong, fueled by pent-up demand andrecord-low mortgage rates.The housing market in Florida continues to bevigorous. Economic and job growth in Floridais forecasted to continue to outperform the U.S.labor market as the economy recovers from a selfinflicted recession. More baby boomers will reachthe end of their working lives and this bodeswell for continued population growth via the inmigration of retirees and job seekers to Florida.We expect this upward trend in sales to continueas increases in the supply of new housing willeventually help ameliorate rapid price appreciationin an environment with continuing strength in theeconomic and demographic drivers of the demandfor housing, as well as historically low mortgagerates and improving mortgage availability.Figure 2 displays median sales prices for existingsingle-family homes. Median sales prices continueto climb since bottoming out in 2011. The doubledigit pace of price-increases in 2016 and 2017,which eased in 2018 and 2019,has resumed in 2020. Over thepast year, the 12-month movingaverage of median sales prices hasrisen by more than 29,452.Extremely low inventoriesof existing homes for sale andlagging housing starts growth havecontributed to an environmentwhere home prices continue torise. The shortage in the singlefamily market will be partiallyameliorated as the pace of singlefamily housing starts to ramp upover the next several years. Singlefamily housing starts in 2023 areexpected to increase by more than 30% from 2016levels.G R O S S S TAT E P R O D U C TWe expect that public health lockdownscontributed to a plunge in real Gross StateProduct (GSP) in 2020 by 2.9% year-over-year.This decline is smaller than both of the declinesthat occurred during the Great Recession (-3.9%in 2008 and -5.5% in 2009.) The second quarteryear-over-year decline in 2020 was steeper than anyquarter during the Great Recession. Fortunately,the COVID-19 recession, while deeper than theprevious recession, was also very short-lived.During 2021-2024, Florida’s real GSP is expectedto grow an average of 3.9% annually.This average growth follows a sharp contractionin 2020 followed by an even sharper accelerationof growth in 2021 to 5.4% and average growthof 3.3% during 2022-2024. The 3.9% growthfrom 2021 through 2024 is a faster pace forInstitute for Economic Forecasting9

FLORIDA SUMMARYgrowth compared to the prior four years (whengrowth averaged 2.3%) thanks to COVID-19.This projected average rate of growth for Florida’seconomy over the next four years is slightly fasterthan the average of our forecasted real GDPgrowth for the U.S. economy over the same timeframe (3.6%).Housing prices have made substantial progressfrom the bottom of the housing crisis. Duringthe crisis, median existing-home prices fell to alow of 122,200 but now stand at 314,900. Thisongoing price appreciation continues to improvehousehold balance sheets in Florida. With theprice appreciation to date, Florida has morethan recovered the aggregate housing value lostduring the housing market collapse. Housingprices plummeted from the median price high of 257,800 in June of 2006.In 2018, Florida’s economy broke the 1 trillionthreshold with nominal Gross State Product (GSP)of 1.050 trillion that increased to 1.107 trillionin 2019, before falling to 1.096 trillion in 2020,then rising again to 1.178 trillion in 2021, 1.2490trillion in 2022, 1.312 trillion in 2023 and 1.382in 2024.P E R S O N A L I N C O M E , R E TA I LSA L E S , A N D AU TO SA L E SIn 2018, real personal income growth in Floridahit 3.8% after growing 4.9% in the prior year.Growth eased to 2.5% in 2019. From that point,personal income growth surged by 5.4% (thanks tostimulus and unemployment payments offsettingthe recession’s impact) in 2020, before falling to0.9% in 2021, rising to 1.1% in 2022, and thento 3.0% in 2023 and 3.3% in 2024. Real personalincome growth during 2021-2024 will average 2.1%in Florida.10Florida & Metro Forecast / March 2021Nominal personal income will be slightly above 1.382 trillion in 2024, marking an increase inpersonal income of nearly 649 billion from itsnadir in 2009. In 2018, real disposable incomegrowth averaged 4.6%, down from the previousyear’s 4.9% growth rate. Average growth in Floridaduring 2021-2024 will be 1.9% with tax cutsand faster wage and salary growth and stimuluspayments fueling the climb as 2020 growth jumpsto 3.9% before contracting to 0.6% in 2021 as theseboosts fade.Financial markets have experienced a strongrebound since the low point of the COVID-19financial crisis, thanks in large part to the FederalReserve Bank’s resumption of zero-interest-ratepolicy, quantitative easing, and other stimulusprograms. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell tothe 18,214 level in March of 2020 but then surgedto a new record high of 33,259 in March 2021, asthe economic recovery rolls on, fed by another largestimulus package.Home equity in Florida did not recover as rapidlyas financial asset wealth during the previousrecession, but housing prices have been climbingover the past five years and median prices havesignificantly exceeded the highs of the housingbubble. The housing market did not suffer thepandemic pain that financial markets experienced.Unlike the previous recovery, the housing marketwill not be an albatross around the neck of Florida’seconomy during this recovery. On the contrary,housing will continue to be an important economicdriver as the recovery from the COVID recessioncontinues, and builders work to replenish severelydepleted inventories.Retail spending was hammered by the publichealth shutdowns and the near-collapse of thetourism industry in Florida. Retail spending in

FLORIDA SUMMARYthe second quarter of 2020 contracted by 3.24%versus the same quarter in 2019. Spending levelsbegan recovering after the short but deep recessionand economic lockdowns, but not enough tofully counter the plunge. In 2021, retail sales willstrengthen significantly versus 2020 rising 8.0%year over year. Sales will remain solid through2024, with growth averaging nearly 4.4% during2021-2024.Consumers began to purchase light vehicles ata faster pace after the Great Recession ended,releasing several years of pent-up demand, andcontinued to do so through 2016, though the paceslowed considerably by 2016. The recent recessiononce again caused a contraction of new passengercar and truck registrations of 9.4% for 2020 versus2019. This contraction is not as pronounced nor aslong-lasting as the one that took place during theGreat Recession.Some pent-up demand and the economic recoverywill boost registrations going forward. Registrationgrowth in Florida during 2021-2024 will average3.6%. Over this period, vehicle registration growthin Florida is expected to recover in 2021 withgrowth rising to 3.6% in 2021, 6.1% in 2022, andthen easing at 1.0% in 2023 and 0.25% in 2024.In 2024, Florida’s new passenger car and truckregistrations will reach 1.34 million, up from the2021 projection of 1.25 million registrations.E M P LOY M E N TBusiness payrolls were decimated by COVID-19lockdowns. It will likely be early 2022 beforebusiness payrolls in Florida exceed their prepandemic levels. The pace of Florida’s labor marketrecovery will exceed the recovery of the nationaljob market. Our outlook for Florida’s job marketis that this will continue to be the case through atleast 2024.Payroll job growth decelerated in 2017 to 2.2%,before it rose to 2.5% in 2018. Job growth easedto 2.0% in 2019 as the state zeroed in on fullemployment. Then came COVID-19. Job growthplummeted in March and April, contributing toan estimated 4.3% year-over-year contraction in2020, but will rebound by 4.1% in 2021, 3.0% in2022, 1.2% in 2023, and 1.1% in 2024. Florida willcontinue to outpace national job growth over theforecast horizon (2021-2024) by an average of 0.3percentage points.Construction job growth decelerated in 2020,but will accelerate the next two years as housingstarts continue to grow amid depleted inventoriesand as large-scale public works projects continueduninterrupted. Despite the episodic plateauing innew home construction growth and the COVID-19shakeup, growth rates in housing starts over theforecast horizon supported construction job growthof 4.1% in 2019, before falling to 0.4% in 2020and 0.5% in 2021, rising to 1.3% in 2022, theneasing to 0.6% in 2023 and 0.8% in 2024. Averageannual job growth during 2021-2024 will be 0.9%.Employment will average 586,400 in 2024—a levelthat is nearly 105,000 fewer jobs than the 2006peak employment in the Construction sector.The Professional and Business Services sector willbe the second fastest-growing sector in the stateon average through 2024. Job growth in this sectoris expected to be strong, averaging 4.2% during2021-2024. Job growth eased in 2017 and 2018to 2.9% and 2.8% after growing to 5.0% in 2016.Growth in this sector decelerated to 2.1% in 2019and plummeted in 2020 as a result of the pandemicand lockdowns. Most of the job losses within thissector during this time were in the employmentInstitute for Economic Forecasting11

FLORIDA SUMMARYservices subsector. Growth will accelerate to 8.5%in 2021, then to 9.1% in 2022, ease to 3.9% in 2023and jump to 4.8% in 2024. The Professional andBusiness Services sector is comprised primarilyof white-collar, service-providing businesses.The sector includes accounting firms, financialmanagement companies, advertising agencies,computer systems design firms, law firms,architectural and engineering companies, andtemporary employment agencies. Job losses duringthe COVID-19 recession were heavily concentratedin employment services and other business services.The Information sector is a mix of high-techventures, including computer programming andsoftware development yet the sector is weigheddown by legacy media, which continues tostruggle with structural changes in gatheringand disseminating information, and mostimportantly, who pays for it. Sources of growthwithin this sector in Florida, such as softwaredevelopment, data processing and hosting, wirelesstelecommunications, and content creation willeventually offset the ongoing loss of jobs intraditional media and publishing, after anotherdifficult year in 2020. Job growth was -0.4% in2019, -6.3% in 2020, but will recover to 6.4% in2021 and 6.7% in 2022, boosted by the continuedroll-out of 5G wireless services. Job growth reversescourse to -1.7% in 2023 but bounces back to 2.9%in 2024. The projected growth path implies anaverage growth rate of 3.6% during 2021-2024.The Education and Health Services sectorin Florida grew consistently even during theworst part of the Great Recession. However, thepandemic hit the sector hard as most electiveprocedures and screenings were postponed. Thestate’s larger share of the population of olderresidents, who have a higher demand for healthservices, has and will support growth in this sector.12Florida & Metro Forecast / March 2021The future of the Affordable Care Act is unclearand once heading again to the Supreme Court,continuing a cloud of uncertainty over the healthsector. Despite this uncertainty, job growth willcontinue at a diminishing rate. During 2021-2024,employment in this sector is expected to continueto expand at an average rate of 2.1%.Manufacturing employment expanded inFlorida at an average rate of 3.6% in 2016, thebest growth rate in more than 16 years. In 2017,growth eased but was still a respectable 2.2%and ticked up to 2.3% in 2018. During 20162019 job growth averaged 2.9% in Florida. Theeconomic environment for the manufacturingsector is increasingly uncertain. While the globaleconomy remains shaky, the push for fairertrade agreements will grind to a stop under theBiden administration. While the U.S. dollar hadstrengthened, interest rate cuts by the Fed areeasing pressure on the value of the dollar. Thesedevelopments will all eventually weigh on the rateof job growth in the manufacturing sector. Afterjob losses of 1.8% in manufacturing in 2020, jobgrowth will accelerate to 2.0% in 2021 after whichjob growth will decelerate until the sector is onceagain losing jobs in 2023 and 2024. Average jobgrowth during 2021-2024 will come in at 0.2%.The State and Local Government sector inFlorida is enjoying increasing property valueseven as COVID-19 took a chunk out of sales taxrevenues. As housing prices continue to climb,property tax revenue is rising as well. Despite thisimprovement, revenues for many local governmentsare still below their peaks in the housing boom,even in some of the fastest-growing housingmarkets around the state. Government budgetshortfalls

Payroll job growth in Florida will continue to outpace national job growth as the labor market climbs out of a deep hole. After year-over-year growth of -4.3% in 2020, the labor . Hillsborough County, Florida Pinellas County, Florida Pasco County, Florida Hernando County, Florida Jacksonville, FL MSA Duval County, Florida