Transcription

DETERMINATION OF GENETIC COEFFICIENTS FROM FIELDEXPERIMENTS FOR CERES-MAIZE AND SOYGROCROP GROWTH MODELSA DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE DIVISION OF THEUNIVERSITY OF HAWAII IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THEREQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OFDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHYINAGRONOMY AND SOIL SCIENCEMAY 1995ByRichard M. OgoshiDissertation Committee:Goro Uehara, ChairmanDuane BartholomewRobert CaldwellKent KobayashiDouglas Friend

11We certify that we have read this dissertation and that, in our opinion, it issatisfactory in scope and quality as a dissertation for the degree o f Doctoro f Philosophy in Agronomy and Soil Science.DISSERTATION COMMITTEE.y cT U )Chairmanr—'C U J*.U &

IllACKNOWLEDGMENTSOver the life of this project many people contributed to the completion andintegrity of this work, and the well-being of the author. Dr. Goro Uehara exercisedgreat patience and gave invaluable advice for this research work. Dr. Gordon Tsujiwas instrumental in executing the experiment with his administrative andpsychological expertise. The IBSNAT project staff cheerfully gave valuable support:Valentine Ah Loy, Pam Brooks, Horatio Chan, Ada Chu, Tony Denault, Lori Higa,Daniel Imamura, Connie Kerley, Earl Kim, Richard and Teri Jacintho, LuisManrique, Robbie Melton, Karen Nakama, Sue Sakumoto, Susan Sato, AgnesShimamura, and Agatha Tang. Dr. L. Anthony Hunt gave crucial direction andimpetus to this entire project. The dissertation committee provided astute suggestionsthat made this work scientific and comprehendible: Drs. Duane Bartholomew, RobertCaldwell, Douglas Friend, and Kent Kobayashi. Fellow graduate students werehelpers and commiserators; Hui Feng Chang, Phoebe Kilham, Hemant Prasad, andSurya Tewari. The NifTAL Project and Kula Experiment Station extended graciouscooperation with land, equipment, and labor. The U.S. Agency for InternationalDevelopment generously lent financial support. Pioneer Hibred International and Dr.Randall Nelson, USD A, courteously provided seed. My family and friends providedconstant encouragement and prayers. My mother and father believed without seeing.To all these fine people, I extend my deepest appreciation.

IVABSTRACTLack o f genetic coefficients is a reason crop models are not widely used. Aproject was therefore developed to evaluate a field method to calculate geneticcoefficients for crop models.The phenology models fi-om SOYGRO v. 5.42 and CERES-Maize v. 2.1, withthe existing genetic coefficients, were tested using data for soybean and maize grownunder extreme photoperiods. Identical experiments were performed at two sites onMaui Island, Hawaii, over three years. The treatment design was a factorial ofphotoperiods (natural, natural 0.5 h, 14-, 17-, and 20-h) and cultivars ('Bragg','Evans', 'Jupiter', and 'Williams' for soybean and Pioneer hybrids X304C, 3165, 3324,3475, and 3790 for maize). Observations included development stage dates, yield,yield components, aboveground biomass weight, soil chemical analysis, and weather.Comparisons between observed and simulated results showed that soybean and maizedevelopment was well simulated. However, soybean yield and maize growth andyield were not well simulated. Further analysis suggested that model bias andparameter uncertainty accounted for nearly equal proportions of variation in soybeangrain yield, whereas most maize growth and yield variation was due to model bias.SOYGRO and CERES-Maize genetic coefficients were calculated from thedata in the above experiments. One method to recalculate genetic coefficients was toincrementally change the genetic coefficients until simulated matched observed

Vresults. Another method was performed according to the maize modeler's suggestion.The fitting method adequately established development genetic coefficients, whereasgrowth coefficients had similar biases as the original genetic coefficients. Theexplicit method did not well simulate maize growth.Using the fitted genetic coefficient means standard error, a sensitivityanalysis was done. The genetic coefficient error that caused the greatest variation insimulated yield and aboveground biomass was identified. The most problematicgenetic coefficients and associated model routines for yield and growth was the podproduction relationship to nightlength in SOYGRO and juvenile phase duration inCERES-Maize.

VITABLE OF CONTENTSAcknowledgements. iiiA bstract. ivList o f T ables. viiiList o f Figures. xiiiChapter 1: Review of Literature. 1Introduction.1Genetic control of crop development and grow th. 2Interaction o f genotype and environment on crop development and growth .Physiology o f environmental effects on crop development and growth . . . . 14SOYGRO and CERES-Maize description.28Genetic coefficients in crop m odels. 31Determining genetic coefficients. 34Chapter 2: Simulating soybean and maize development and growth underextreme artificial photoperiods with SOYGRO and CERES-Maize cropsimulation m odels. 36Introduction. 36Methods and materials.37R esults. 49D iscussion. 84Chapter 3: Evaluating methods to estimate genetic coefficients in SOYGROand CERES-M aize. 98Introduction.98Methods and m aterials.101R esults.110D iscussion.203Chapter 4: Sensitivity analysis o f derived genetic coefficients for SOYGROand CERES-M aize.207Introduction.207Methods and m aterials. 208R esults. 216D iscussion.227Chapters: Summary and conclusion.240Appendix A: Soybean data, summer 1988 . 243Appendix B: Soybean data, winter 1988 . 263Appendix C: Soybean data, summer 1989. 271Appendix D: Soybean data, summer 1990. 291Appendix E: Maize data, summer 1988 . 311Appendix F: Maize data, winter 1988 .331Appendix G: Maize data, summer 1989 . 339. 8

VllAppendix H: Maize data, summer 1990 . 359Appendix I: Maize data, winter 1990. 379Appendix J: Weather d a ta .387References.433

V lllLIST OF TABLESTablePage1. Genetic coefficients o f soybean cuitivars for SOYGRO v .5.42 . 442. Genetic coefficients o f Pioneer hybrids for CERES-Maize v.2.1 . 453. Mean squares from analyses o f variance for number of nodes onmainstem and days from planting to flowering for soybean.504 . Mean squares from analyses of variance for grain weight plant’',seeds plant’*, and seed weight for soybean. 545 . Mean squares from analysis o f variance for total leaf number in m aize658. Mean squares from analysis of variance for days to silking in m aize.617. Mean squares from analyses o f variance for grain weight plant’’,kernel number plant’', and single kernel weight in m aize.638.9.Regression and error analysis for SOYGRO phenology using originalgenetic coefficients. 69Regression and error analysis for SOYGRO growth using originalgenetic coefficients.7 310.Regression and error analysis for CERES-Maize development usingoriginal genetic coefficients.8011.Regression and error analysis for CERES-Maize growth usingoriginal genetic coefficients.8512.Developmental and growth genetic coefficients in SOY G RO . 9913.Developmental and growth genetic coefficients in CERES-M aize. 10014. Original and fitted SOYGRO genetic coefficients for cuitivars 'Bragg'and 'E vans'.I l l15. Original and fitted SOYGRO genetic coefficients for cuitivars'Jupiter' and 'W illiam s'. 112

IXTablg16. Original, explicit, and fitted CERES-Maize genetic coefficients forPioneer hybrids X304C and 3 1 6 5 .11417. Original, explicit, and fitted CERES-Maize genetic coefficients forPioneer hybrids 3324 and 3475 . 11418. Original, explicit, and fitted CERES-Maize genetic coefficients forPioneer hybrid 3 7 9 0 . 11519. Mean squares firom analyses of variance for fitted SOYGRO geneticcoefficients PHTHRS(l), PHTHRS(2), and PHTHRS(4). 11820. Mean squares fi'om analyses of variance for fitted SOYGRO geneticcoefficients VARTH, VARNl, and VARNO.12121. Mean squares tfom analyses of variance for fitted SOYGRO geneticcoefficients PHTHRS( ), PHTHRS(7), and PHTHRS( ) . 1236822. Mean squares from analyses of variance for fitted SOYGRO geneticcoefficients PHTHRS(9) and PHTHRS(IO).12423. Mean squares from analyses of variance of fitted SOYGRO geneticTRIFOL for soybean cultivars 'Bragg' and 'E vans'. 13024. Mean squares from analyses of variance for fitted SOYGRO geneticcoefficients SIZELF and SLA V A R .13125. Mean squares from analyses o f variance for fitted SOYGRO geneticcoefficients SDPDVR, FLWMAX, and PO D V A R. 13326. Mean squares from analyses of variance for fitted SOYGRO geneticcoefficients SHVAR, SDVAR, and PH FA C3.13427. Mean squares from analyses of variance for explicit CERES-Maizegenetic coefficients PI and P 5 . 13628. Mean squares from analysis of variance for explicit CERES-Maizegenetic coefficient P 2 . 139

Xla h lePqgg29. Mean squares from analyses of variance for explicit CERES-Maizegenetic coefficients G2 and G 3 . 14230. Mean squares from analyses of variance for fitted CERES-Maizegenetic coefficients PI and P 5 . 14631. Mean squares from analysis o f variance for fitted CERES-Maizegenetic coefficient P I . 14932. Mean squares from analyses o f variance for fitted CERES-Maizegenetic coefficients G2 and G 3 . 15333. Mean squares from analysis o f variance for fitted CERES-Maizecrop coefficient P 9 . 15734. Mean squares from analyses of variance for fitted CERES-Maizecrop coefficients XLPGDD and PCHRON. 15935. Regression and error analysis comparing control and naturalphotoperiod treatments for soybean development. 16436. Regression and error analysis comparing control and naturalphotoperiod treatments for soybean grow th.16537. Regression and error analysis comparing control and naturalphotoperiod treatments for maize development.16738. Regression and error analysis comparing control and naturalphotoperiod treatments for maize grow th.16839. Regression and error analysis of simulated soybean developmentusing fitted genetic coefficients.17040. Regression and error analysis of simulated soybean growth usingfitted genetic coefficients. 17441. Regression and error analysis of simulated maize development usingexplicit genetic coefficients. 181

XITablePage42. Regression and error analysis of simulated maize development usingfitted genetic coefficients.18543. Regression and error analysis of simulated maize growth using fittedgenetic coefficients. 18944. Regression and error analysis of simulated maize growth usingexplicit genetic coefficients. 19545. Mean and standard error of 16 SOYGRO genetic coefficients forsoybean cultivars 'Bragg' and 'E vans'. 21146. Mean and standard error o f 16 SOYGRO genetic coefficients forsoybean cultivars 'Jupiter' and 'W illiam s'.21247. Mean and standard error of five CERES-Maize genetic coefficientsand three variables for Pioneer hybrids X304C, 3165,and 3 3 2 4 . 21448. Mean and standard error of five CERES-Maize genetic coefficientsand three variables for Pioneer hybrids 3475 and 3 7 9 0 . 21549.Sums o f squares for yield o f 'Bragg' soybean. 21750.Sums o f squares for yield o f 'Evans' soybean. 21851.Sums o f squaresfor yield o f 'Jupiter' soybean. 21952.Sums o f squaresfor yield of'Williams' soybean.22053. Sums o f squares for aboveground biomass weight of 'Bragg'soybean.2 2 154. Sums o f squares for aboveground biomass weight of 'Evans'soybean.2 2 255. Sums o f squares for aboveground biomass weight of 'Jupiter'soybean. 22356. Sums o f squares for aboveground biomass weight of'W illiams'soybean. 224

XIIT abkPage57. Sums o f squares for grain yield of Pioneer hybrid X304C m aize.22858.Sums o f squares for grain yield of Pioneer hybrid 3165 m aize. 22859.Sums o f squares for grain yield of Pioneer hybrid 3324 m aize. 22960.Sums o f squares for grain yield of Pioneer hybrid 3475 m aize. 22961.Sums o f squares for grain yield of Pioneer hybrid 3790 m aize. 23062. Sums o f squares for aboveground biomass weight of Pioneer hybridX304C m aize.23063. Sums o f squares for aboveground biomass weight of Pioneer hybrid3165 m aize. 23164. Sums o f squares for aboveground biomass weight of Pioneer hybrid3324 m aize. 23165. Sums o f squares for aboveground biomass weight of Pioneer hybrid3475 m aize. 23266. Sums o f squares for abovegroimd biomass weight of Pioneer hybrid3790 m aize. 233

X lllLIST OF FIGURESFisurg1.Photoperiod extension effect on number of main stem nodes in soybean . . . 512.Photoperiod extension effect on days to flowering in soybean.523.Photoperiod extension effect on grain yield plant'' in soybean.554.Photoperiod extension effect on seed number plant' in soybean.565.Photoperiod extension effect on single seed weight in soybean.57.Photoperiod extension effect on total leaf number in m aize. .607.Photoperiod extension effect on days to silking in m aize.62.Photoperiod extension effect on grain yield plant' in m aize. 649.Photoperiod extension effect on kernel weight in m aize.6510.Photoperiod extension effect on kernels plant' in m aize.6711.Observed vs. simulated plot o f days to flowering for soybean usingoriginal genetic coefficients.7012.Observed vs. simulated plot o f days to full pod for soybean usingoriginal genetic coefficients.7113.Observed vs. simulated plot o f days to physiological maturityfor soybean using original genetic coefficients.726814 . Observed vs. simulated plot o f grain yield for soybean using originalgenetic coefficients. 7415.Observed vs. simulated plot of single seed weight for soybean usingoriginal genetic coefficients.7516.Observed vs. simulated plot of seed number for soybean using originalgenetic coefficients.76

XIVF isprgPage17. Observed vs. simulated plot o f aboveground biomass weight forsoybean using original genetic coefficients.7818.Observed vs. simulated plot o f stem weight for soybean using originalgenetic coefficients. 7919.Observed vs. simulated plot o f tassel initiation for maize usingoriginal genetic coefficients.8120.Observed vs. simulated plot of silking for maize using originalgenetic coefficients.8221.Observed vs. simulated plot o f physiological maturity for maizeusing original genetic coefficients. 8322.Observed vs. simulated plot o f grain yield for maize using originalgenetic coefficients.8 623.Observed vs. simulated plot o f single kernel weight for maizeusing original genetic coefficients. 8724.Observed vs. simulated plot o f number of kernels for maize usingoriginal genetic coefficients. ; . . .8 825.Observed vs. simulated plot of abovegroimd biomass weight formaize using original genetic coefficients. 8926.Observed vs. simulated plot o f stover weight for maize usingoriginal genetic coefficients. 9027.Photoperiod extension effect on estimating PHTHRS(2) geneticcoefficient for SOYGRO. 12028.Photoperiod extension effect on estimating PHTHRS( ) geneticcoefficient for SOYGRO. 12529.Photoperiod extension effect on estimating PHTHRS(7) geneticcoefficient for SOYGRO. 1266

XVFigurg30. Photoperiod extension effect on estimating PHTHRS( ) geneticcoefficient for SOYGRO.127831. Photoperiod extension effect on estimating PHTHRS(9) geneticcoefficient for SOYGRO.12832. Photoperiod extension effect on estimating PHTHRS( 10) geneticcoefficient for SOYGRO.12933. Photoperiod extension effect on estimating SIZELF geneticcoefficient for SOYGRO.13234. Year effect on estimating explicit PI genetic coefficient forCERES-M aize.13835. Photoperiod effect on estimating explicit P5 genetic coefficientfor CERES-M aize.14036. Photoperiod effect on estimating explicit G2 genetic coefficientfor CERES-M aize.14337. Photoperiod effect on estimating explicit G3 genetic coefficientfor CERES-M aize.14438. Year effect on estimating fitted PI genetic coefficient forCERES-M aize. 14739. Photoperiod effect on estimating fitted P5 genetic coefficient forCERES-M aize. 14840. Photoperiod effect on estimating fitted P2 genetic coefficient forCERES-M aize. 15041. Effect o f decreased threshold photoperiod on fitted P2 values. 15142. Photoperiod effect on estimating fitted G2 genetic coefficient forCERES-M aize. 15443. Photoperiod effect on estimating fitted G3 genetic coefficient forCERES-M aize. 155

XVIFigure44.Year effect on estimating fitted P9 crop coefficient forCERES-M aize. 15845.Photoperiod effect on estimating fitted XLPGDD crop coefficientfor CERES-M aize.16046.Photoperiod effect on estimating fitted PCHRON crop coefficientfor CERES-M aize.16247.Observed vs. simulated plot of days to flowering for soybean usingfitted genetic coefficients.17148.Observed vs. simulated plot of days to full pod for soybean usingfitted genetic coefficients.17249.Observed vs. simulated plot of days to physiological maturity forsoybean using fitted genetic coefficients. 17350.Observed vs. simulated plot o f grain yield for soybean using fittedgenetic coefficients.17551.Observed vs. simulated plot of weight seed*' for soybean usingfitted genetic coefficients.17652.Observed vs. simulated plot of seeds m’ for soybean using fittedgenetic coefficients. 17753.Observed vs. simulated plot o f aboveground biomass weight forsoybean using fitted genetic coefficients. 17854.Observed vs. simulated plot of stem weight for soybean using fittedgenetic coefficients. 17955.Observed vs. simulated plot of days to tassel initiation for maizeusing explicit genetic coefficients. 18256.Observed vs. simulated plot of days to silking for maize usingexplicit genetic coefficients.183

X VllFigurePage57. Observed vs. simulated plot of days to physiological maturity formaize using explicit geneticcoefficients. 18458.Observed vs. simulated plot of days to tassel initiation for maizeusing fitted genetic coefficients. 18659.Observed vs. simulated plot of days to silking for maize using fittedgenetic coefficients.18760.Observed vs. simulated plot of days to physiological maturity formaize using fitted genetic coefficients.18861.Observed vs. simulated plot of grain yield for maize using explicitgenetic coefficients. 19062.Observed vs. simulated plot o f single kernel weight for maize usingexplicit genetic coefficients.19163.Observed vs. simulated plot o f kernels m‘ for maize using explicitgenetic coefficients. 19264.Observed vs. simulated plot of aboveground biomas

59. Sums of squares for grain yield of Pioneer hybrid 3324 maize.229 60. Sums of squares for grain yield of Pioneer hybrid 3475 maize.229 61. Sums of squares for grain yield of Pioneer hybrid 3790 maize.23