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ESSENCE OF DECISIONExplainingtheCubanMissileCrisisSecond EditionGraham AllisonHarvard UniversitYPhilip ZelikowUniversitY of VirginiaEl t'NGMANA"Addison Wesley Longman' lnc'"f'rptintMassachusettsMenlo Park' California' Harlow' England'Mexico City ' Madrid ' AmsterdamDon Mills, Ontario ' Sya""y 'New York'Reading,

To Elisabeth and PaigeAssociate Editor: Jennie ErricksonMarketing Manager: Megan GalvinProject Coordination and Text Design: EIm Street Publishing Services, Inc'Cover Designer/Manager: Nancy DanahyCover Illustration: Nanry DanahyFull Service Production Manager: Valerie ZaborskiPhoto Researcher: Photosearch, Inc.Senior Manufacturing Buyer: Hugh CrawfordElectronic Page Makeup: Elm Street Publishing Services, Inc.Printer and Binder: R.R. Donnelley & Sons, Co.Cover Printer: Phoenix Color CorP.Preface riiIntroductionModel I: The lA Rigorou" \(A Ratrona- -{;The C1a*qsl;alr-i-----'ItL\-'.L.A1.-Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication DataAllison, Graham T.Essence of decision: explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis / Graham2nd ed.T. Allison, Philip D. Zelikow.-p.cm.Includes ;;'-{r'--rtl;Whv Drc-.ne3 Modeltr: OrOrgani-zat,r-rrOrganizanoInteractlre CNASA: FfercrOrganizamorISBN 0-321-01349-223 4567 89Whv Di,l, ffiervith a tslo"lPr"ts-.:r*J1999 byAddison-Wesley Educational Publishers Inc.http://longman.awl.comThe Cubanl{H1p"r;tr*98-364t3CIPvisit our website atYarian* ani IFI1P";teAll rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, storedin a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means,electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without theprior written permission of the publisher. Printed in the United States'Pleaserl f rrr "aa.\\trv Dric --lreCuba? -bISBN 0-321-01349-21. Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962.I. Zelikow, Philip, 1954-.II. Title.8841.L441999973.923-dc2lfuic*-;;10099

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ESSENCE OF DECISION ExplainingtheCubanMissileCrisis Second Edition Graham Allison Harvard UniversitY Philip Zelikow UniversitY of Virginia El t'NGMAN A" 'rptint "f .