Transcription
Observations for “Building a PV roadmap” panelDoug Rose, SunPower Corp.NAS PV Manufacturing Symposium, 7/29/09
Safe Harbor StatementThis presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private SecuritiesLitigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are statements that do not representhistorical facts and may be based on underlying assumptions. The company uses words andphrases such as "expects," “believes,” “plans,” “anticipates,” "continue," "growing," "will," to identifyforward-looking statements in this presentation, including forward-looking statements regarding: (a)our backlog and pipeline; (b) our plans and expectations regarding our cost reduction roadmap; (c)cell manufacturing ramp plan; (d) financial forecasts; and (e) governmental and financial industryincentives. Such forward-looking statements are based on information available to the company asof the date of this release and involve a number of risks and uncertainties, some beyond thecompany's control, that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by theseforward-looking statements, including risks and uncertainties such as: (i) the company's ability toobtain and maintain an adequate supply of raw materials and components, as well as the price itpays for such; (ii) general business and economic conditions, including seasonality of the industry;(iii) growth trends in the solar power industry; (iv) the continuation of governmental and relatedeconomic incentives promoting the use of solar power; (v) the improved availability of third-partyfinancing arrangements for the company's customers; (vi) construction difficulties or potential delays,including permitting and transmission access and upgrades; (vii) the company's ability to ramp newproduction lines and realize expected manufacturing efficiencies; (viii) manufacturing difficulties thatcould arise; (ix) the success of the company's ongoing research and development efforts to competewith other companies and competing technologies; (x) FPL Group’s potential exercise of earlytermination rights under the supply agreement; and (xi) other risks described in the company'sAnnual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 28, 2008, and other filings with theSecurities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking statements should not be relied uponas representing the company's views as of any subsequent date, and the company is under noobligation to, and expressly disclaims any responsibility to, update or alter its forward-looking 2009 SunPower Corp.statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.2
Overview Observations:– PV is poised to become a significant source of cost-effectiverenewable energy– A “Semi-like” equipment/technology roadmap is not appropriatefor PV– DOE has been instrumental to the progress of PV in the U.S.– There are many ways that the DOE/Federal Government canaccelerate PV industry growth, and thereby help the U.S. in thenear and long term 2009 SunPower Corp.3
Historical Semiconductor and PV ModuleAnnual Sales1000Semic.6- 7 GWinstalled in2008 worldwidePV100PV uses moresilicon than theIC industry 2002B101PV processesmore area ofwafers than theIC 020052010Dedicated PVtools withautomation 2009 SunPower Corp.4
c-Si PV industry back on cost learning-curve(ASP), 2008 PriceSalesModule Average(2008 )ASPModule100Large decreases inbalance of systemcost during this timeperiod1979 33/W81% ProgressRatio102008 3.17/WSiliconShortage11101001000Here, PV is competingfor baseload (in the 7 to10 years it takes to builda nuclear plant, PVinstalled over that sametime frame will be lowercost)2012 1.40/W10000100000Cumulative Production (MW)Last 4 data points are forecast by the Prometheus InstituteBy most estimates, PV LCOE without incentives usingthese modules will be lower than peaking natural gasLCOE. Best-in class thin film and high efficiency PVpower plants will give even lower LCOE . 2009 SunPower Corp.5
Technology/Equipment Roadmaps There is much we can learn from the successes of the IC roadmapsand consortia, but. There are significant problems/risks of implementing technology/equipment roadmaps in PV like those used to drive the IC industry– IC industry had split of IP in processing and chip design, with sharedinterest of geometry shrinks on predictable schedule -- not analogous toPV– Most of the PV value chain is not similar to the IC industry (closer toconstruction, building materials, automotive, consumer electronics)– IC-industry-derived standards would increase equipment costs– Could undercut the existing collaboration infrastructure in PV– Could undercut guidance from organizations more familiar with PV– Could lead to delay in needed US market development– Could pull funding and resources from the needed diversity ofarchitectures and application solutions 2009 SunPower Corp.6
Technology / Equipment roadmap? Which one(s)? (with a tiny sampling of the current variation within each one)– c-Si: Back contact?, HIT?, 5”, 6”, 8”?, Legacy architecture?, others Polycrystalline or crystalline? N-type or P-type? Cleaved or advanced saw? Film? Focus on variations on legacy architecture at expense of others likely counterproductive– CIGS: Sputtering (1 step or 2 step?)?, Co-Evaporation?, Electrodeposition?, Nanoparticle inkprinting? FASST reaction process? Ion-beam assisted? Multi-junction? Up or down conversion layers? Flexible or rigid?, large for ground mount?, small for rooftiles?, cylinders for roof mount?– CdTe: VTD? CSS? Nanoparticle print? Sputtering? Flexible? Small or large?– Amorphous Si: Tandem or 3j? a or µc? Giant for ground mount, flexible roof mount, bipv?– High concentration: Mirror with dense array, off-axis small mirrors, lens, plastic, IMM, – III-V based thin films? New materials? Organics? Dye sensitized?So, even having 10 different technology roadmaps wouldstill discourage competition and innovation 2009 SunPower Corp.7
And there is important innovation in the rest of the value chain, forexample for c-Si:PolysiliconIngotWaferSolar CellSolar PanelSystemRough percentages for conventional c-Si* (and a sampling of innovation efforts)10%6% 7% Diamond Continuouswire, etc.growth, etc. New Lower-costwafering: UMGKerf-free 50 μm wafer Lower g/W via downstreamworkSiGen11%20%A variety of methods toincrease cell efficiency, Higher performance or reducedwhich decreases all thecost through new materials, newupstream & downinterconnection, stream /W costs. Increased value via aesthetics,Cost reduction viaon-module intelligence, thinner cells, reduced Reduced system costs viamaterials, etc.customization to application46% New tracking approaches Increase value via higherperformance, aesthetics,monitoring and control, Productized, easy-mountsolutions Integration of module andend application system* Value chain distribution percentages are for new Centrotherm 347MW plant as reported in Dec. 2008 Photon International, with 30% GM added to all steps and system costs of 1.69/W (including margin), using average of U.S. and China locations and 1.32/euro exchange rate. 2009 SunPower Corp.8
Diversity is needed for maximum success Energy market 1 trillion / yr Competition drives cost reduction– Innovations and private funding for many different approaches Multiple approaches will give greater total volume (reduced impactsfrom material limits, exponential scaling limits, etc.) Diverse applications require diverse product characteristics– Next 3 slides: Some of the diversity of systems from SunPower alone, using onlyall-back-contact high-efficiency silicon cells 2009 SunPower Corp.9
ResidentialBuilding integratedBuilding applied Plus: Smart-mount system, monitoring, packaged systems 2009 SunPower Corp.10
CommercialNo roof penetrations;easy to installNew integratedmodule/frame/mount,developed under DOESAI program 2009 SunPower Corp.11
Power plants40.0%38.0%36.0%34.0%32.0%30.0%Annual CF28.0%Summer CF26.0%24.0%22.0%20.0%Fixed TiltT20 TrackerT0 TrackerSummertime capacity factor with SunPower modules 2009 SunPower Corp.and T0 tracker in Las Vegas is 39%12
Recommended public/private partnerships (1 of 2) Downstream areas would have biggest positive impact– Local markets with multi-year demand drive local manufacturing Majority of jobs in value chain are in module manufacture and systemmanufacture/assembly – and these are the steps best done locally Downstream infrastructure (new approaches, sales channels, personnel,installation knowledge, local companies) has lasting benefit because it willbe local and will be in place for further scaling with future technologies. Long-term commitments for PV for Federal building and state grants Carbon tax (with refund to Americans on per-capita basis)?– End-project financing is the key constraint now, so Green Bank, ITCgrants, and other similar programs will have big impact– Bringing down other barriers for PV penetration (grid, permitting, localordinances, educating customers about value of no energy cost risk for25 years, etc.) 2009 SunPower Corp.13
Recommended public/private partnerships (2 of 2) Programs that directly encourage development and manufacturing– Funding for diverse constituents Federal labs such as NREL and Sandia, Centers of Excellence, large andsmall companies, Universities, technology development centers– Manufacturing tax credit– Technology partnerships in select areas For example, the Thin Film Partnership which funded universities andcompanies with collaboration on areas of common interest was very helpful Module Energy Ratings Cost / volume roadmaps to help guide policy and industry investment 2009 SunPower Corp.14
Key take-aways PV is now poised to become a large source of clean energy Approaches for Equipment/Technology Roadmaps that were helpfulfor the IC industry are not appropriate for the PV industry DOE has been a key part of the progress of the US PV industry, andcan continue to drive progress and more manufacturing through:– Downstream programs such as Green Bank that drive increasedscale and local infrastructure– Programs that encourage development and US manufacturing– Education that PV can deliver lower cost and higher volumesthan commonly believed 2009 SunPower Corp.15
Polysilicon Ingot Wafer Solar Cell Solar Panel System And there is important innovation in the rest of the value chain, for example for c-Si: * Value chain distribution percentages are for new Centrotherm 347MW plant as reported in Dec. 2008 Photon Internat
