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2019JANUARYNewsletterSTAFF PROFILEPeter RogierLoan OfficerNMLS #1501182What was your favorite partof the holiday season?“The best part of my holidayseason was getting to experiencethe season for the first time as aparent. I had fun buying gifts formy newborn daughter (althoughI also had to unwrap them forher) and seeing her enjoy hernew toys. My wife and I also hadfun putting her in festive outfitsand showing her off with familyat parties. We were even luckyenough to get a picture of thefamily with Santa!”FUN “Holidays”1/3 - Festival of Sleep Day1/5 - Bird Day1/20 - Soup Swap Day2/2 - Day of the Crêpe2/15 - Gumdrop Day3/1 - World Compliment Day3/23 - Puppy DayContentsJANUARYMMember Feedback (Page 2)Marketing Samples (Page 3)infocus: The gift thatkeeps on giving: reports!(Page 4)INDUSTRY NEWS2019 Real Estate ForecastWhat to expect, when it seemslike everyone’s expecting theworst. But maybe it’s not allbad?ForbesDeploying tech in a down marketIt’s tough for non-banklenders to compete in today’smortgage market. What canyour CU do to get an edge?National Mortgage NewsCase Study: HomeReady & BECUBoeing Employees CreditUnion (BECU) discusses theadvantages HomeReadyoffers their members.Fannie 28293031 Federal holiday
MEMBERfeedbackMember feedback is obtained monthly, using a standardcustomer service survey where members are asked torank various services provided by Members Mortgage,and given the option to leave a comment. Each membermay only rate services/comment once per loantransaction. Members are identified only by first name toensure their privacy, and all comments shared are frommembers who opted to allow the use of their feedback.The comments are preserved in their entirety-- typosand all!Ann P. -- “Efficient!”61 NPS(Net PromoterScore)What does this actually tell us?In general, any positive numberconstitutes a good Net PromoterScore. Any number above 50 isexcellent, and any number above70 is world-class, going by theofficial metric. Learn more aboutNPS.How is it calculated?The Net Promoter calculationcalls for us to subtract thepercentage of detractors(people who rated 0-6) from thepercentage of promoters (peoplewho rated 9-10) and leave out thepercentage of neutrals (peoplewho rated 7-8).Vincent S. -- “So professionally done”Linda Bruno -- “I am an attorney myself and thoroughlyfamiliar with mortgages and the loan process. Oftenwhen things seemingly can’t go wrong they do. MembersMortgage and our attorney were caring, careful andcompetent. It does not get any better than that. Greatteam to have on my side.”Michael T. -- “Any questions that came up wereanswered very quickly from the members mortgageteam. Everyone was helpful and informative that Idealt with. Peter Rogier as well as my attorney, DonnaWexler always responded to emails and calls withinminutes. Thanks for making the loan process easier tounderstand!”Nicholas M. -- “Very professional.”Nidhi K. – “Peter was outstanding with answering anyquestions very quickly.”Lauren B. – “My experience with Members and Joe wasgreat. As a first time home buyer (knowing little aboutthe process), they were very informative, timely andpatient. Overall, they made the whole process very easy. Icouldn’t have asked for a better team.”Theresa M. – “Peter was great at explaining options andlistening to what we needed.”Laura R. – “Everything went along very smoothly. Theymade it a very easy process.”—2—
SpringmarketingsamplesIt’s never too early to start planningyour spring campaign! As always, alldesigns can be customized to suityour CU colors, programs, logo, andeven the pictures can be changedto suit the theme you want for theseason!—3—
The gift that keeps on giving: reports!Even after the end of the year, the reports keeprolling in. It’s like the holidays-- only, with data.We’ve rounded up several for you to round out oursummary, beginning with where we are now.Employment: The hiring pace slowed inNovember but the unemployment rate heldsteady at 3.7 percent. Annual wage growth, at 3.1percent, matched the October rate, which wasthe strongest in nine years. The report “makes usmore confident that 2019 will continue this longexpansion from the recession,” Chris Rupkey,chief financial economist and managing directorat MUFG, told the Wall Street Journal.Interest rates: Federal Reserve ChairmanJerome Powell and other Fed officials have beensignaling their intention to remain on the ratetightening course they have been following forthe past two years. But an increasingly turbulentstock market and a wobbly housing market maybe giving them pause. “We need to be attunedto the possibility that the U.S. economy couldlook very different in the first quarter, first half of2019 than it does now,” Robert Kaplan, presidentof the Dallas Fed, told the WSJ recently. “Thereare times when the smartest thing you can do isturn over a few cards and do nothing,” he added.Business confidence: Although economic—4—conditions remain generally favorable inmost of the country, the Federal Reserve’sNovember Beige Book round-up foundthat business executives are becomingincreasingly nervous about the impactof rising interest rates and the TrumpAdministration’s trade policies. the evidenceof increasing uncertaintyConsumer confidence: Both theConference Board and the University ofMichigan reported small declines in theirconfidence indexes in November, fueled byuncertainty about the economic outlook.“Overall, consumers are still quite confidentthat economic growth will continue at asolid pace into early 2019,” Lynn Franco, theConference Board’s director of economicindicators, said in a statement. “However,if expectations soften further in the comingmonths, the pace of growth is likely to beginmoderating.” Future concerns don’t appearto be affecting current spending, whichincreased by 0.6 percent in October, thelargest monthly gain since March, accordingto a Commerce Department report.Housing: Existing home sales declinedby 5.1 percent in October compared with thesame month last year, their largest year-over
year decline in four years,“and there is some feelingthat the market could actuallygo even lower,” LawrenceYun, chief economist forthe National Association ofRealtors, cautioned. Pendingsales for the month declinedby 2.6 percent comparedwith the September indexreading, which was reviseddownward which was reviseddownward. New home sales,which were expected torebound from a Septemberdip, fell sharply in October,after the September pacewas revised upward. Octobersales were nearly 12 percentbelow the year-ago level.Home prices, measured by theCase-Shiller national index,continued to increase, but at aslower pace, “confirm[ing] theslowdown in housing, DavidBlitzer, managing directorand chairman of the indexcommittee at S&P Dow JonesIndices, said in a statement.Separately, Redfin reports thatnearly one-third of the homessold in October sold at pricesbelow their original listings.Forecasts for 2019:Housing analysts are predictingthat the housing market willbe challenging for buyers andsellers, as the problems thatdampened sales in the latterhalf of this year – rising rates,shrinking inventories, andeconomic uncertainty persistin 2019.Mortgage ratesAn unexpected dip inmortgage rates in Decemberand indications that the Fedmay be less gung-ho aboutits rate-hike policy haven’taltered the consensus viewthat mortgage rates willcontinue to increase nextyear. Trulia is predicting thatrates will reach a 10-year high,ending the year at close to 6percent and “taking a bite outof affordability on top of analready supply-constrainedand high-priced housingmarket.”InventoryMore new housing is theobvious cure for the market’sinventory woes, but analystsaren’t expecting builders toramp up production levelsmuch, if at all, next year. “Withthe construction industryfacing significant headwindsfrom the higher cost ofmaterials and labor as well asrising interest rates, we do notexpect much if any growthin new construction startsin 2019 to help alleviate [theinventory shortage],” Trulia’sforecast notes. “And even ifinventory begins to pick upin more markets,” the reportadds, “it will be rising frommulti-year lows and will takea long while to get back to amore balanced level betweenbuyers and sellers.”“Inventory will continue toincrease next year, but unlessthere is a major shift in theeconomic trajectory, we don’texpect a buyer’s market onthe horizon within the nextfive years,” realtor.com ChiefEconomist Danielle Hale,agrees. Conditions will be—5—particularly difficult for first-timebuyers, he predicts, because risingmortgage rates and prices “willkeep a lot of the new inventory outof their budget.”Zillow Senior Economist AaronTerrazas agrees generally withthe consensus assessment ofprevailing problematic trends butdraws a slightly more optimisticconclusion from it. “Certainheadwinds – including risingmortgage interest rates, higherrents and stiff competition forhousing in the most desirableareas – will only grow strongerover the next year,” he suggests,“but that won’t necessarily bea bad thing. A “slower-movingmarket,” he believes, will put thebrakes on appreciation rates and“give more buyers a chance tocatch their breath and choosefrom a wider selection of homesthat fit their preferences andbudgets.”We’re going to end with hisupbeat prediction for the year tocome: “2019 looks to be a pivotalyear as the market cools andtransitions from one marked byrobust recovery into one more inline with historic norms and morebalanced between buyers, sellersand renters.”
Mortgage rates An unexpected dip in mortgage rates in December and indications that the Fed may be less gung-ho about its rate-hike policy haven’t altered the consensus view that mortgage rates will continue to increase next year. Trulia is predicting that rates
